The past week has seen significant developments in the crypto space that offer strategic insights for legal and financial professionals. The surge in Bitcoin ETF inflows, reaching $675.8 million, is a clear indicator of the growing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies. This surge, fueled by predictions of imminent U.S. interest rate cuts and Bitcoin's strong performance as a store-of-value, signals a shift in market behavior that professionals need to consider in their strategic planning.
The imminent relaunch of Polymarket in the U.S., following its acquisition of a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, points to the increasing integration of crypto platforms into the regulated financial landscape. This development, coupled with the proposal by Swedish lawmakers for the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve, highlights the growing recognition of cryptocurrencies as strategic assets at both the corporate and national levels.
The transformation of the traditional Wall Street trading model through the tokenization of U.S. stocks and ETFs is another significant trend. The integration of these tokenized assets into crypto wallets signals a shift towards 24/7 on-chain trading, potentially extending Wall Street's reach globally. This development, however, comes with its own set of challenges, including regulatory issues and structural frictions that need to be addressed.
The increasing involvement of high-profile figures, such as the Trump family, in the crypto space, as evidenced by the launch of the WLFI token, underscores the growing visibility and influence of cryptocurrencies. However, this also heightens political and regulatory scrutiny, which could impact market sentiment.
In conclusion, the past week's developments point to a maturing crypto ecosystem, with increasing institutional interest and integration into the regulated financial landscape. However, this growth comes with its own set of challenges, including regulatory and compliance issues, that professionals need to navigate strategically.
The following article summaries have been sourced from Decrypt, CryptoSlate, NewsBTC, and Crypto Briefing. Each summary includes a direct link to the original source.
Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the U.S. have seen a significant increase in inflows, reaching $675.8 million on Wednesday, the highest level since September 12. This surge coincides with Bitcoin's price topping $119,000 on Thursday morning. Analysts attribute the increased Bitcoin ETF inflows to a combination of macro and market-specific factors, including predictions of imminent U.S. interest rate cuts. The world's largest Bitcoin fund, BlackRock’s IBIT, led the inflows with $405.5 million, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC fund and Bitwise’s BITB fund, which attracted $179.3 million and $59.4 million respectively.
Ethereum ETFs are also performing well, with ETH funds attracting $80.9 million on Wednesday. Illia Otychenko, Lead Analyst at exchange CEX.IO, noted that the chance of a rate cut in October jumped to nearly 100% over the past week. This, along with weakness in the labor market, has reinforced expectations for further Federal Reserve cuts. Bitcoin's strong performance has been attributed to investors viewing it as a store-of-value similar to gold, amid ongoing risks such as dollar debasement under current U.S. fiscal policy and de-dollarization in countries like Russia and China. Dovile Silenskyte, Director of Digital Assets Research at investment firm WisdomTree, noted that Bitcoin effectively captures both store-of-value flows and growth-asset upside.
Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market, is set to relaunch in the U.S. after a four-year hiatus. The company recently acquired QCX/QC Clearing (QCEX) for $112M, which provided them with a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse. On September 3, the CFTC issued a no-action letter, allowing Polymarket to have limited relief on event-contract reporting/recordkeeping. Since then, Polymarket has started self-certifying event contracts, such as sports and elections, which is the final step before relaunching the U.S. platform. According to CFTC rules, once a DCM files a certification, the market can list immediately if there are no objections.
Polymarket's U.S. filings indicate that listings will occur "no earlier than October 2, 2025," which means the platform could open as soon as the next day. However, other sources suggest the launch date could be as late as October 7, 2025. Once live, U.S. users will be able to use Polymarket without a VPN, and because it's running on a CFTC-licensed venue, users can expect a quick KYC/identity check and standard U.S. compliance. Initial listings are likely to include sports spreads/totals and election outcomes. The platform's access will likely start on the official U.S. web app and then roll into App Store / Google Play once approvals are cleared. This relaunch is expected to significantly boost U.S. adoption and help Polymarket regain market share against competitors like Kalshi.
Two members of the Sweden Democrats, the second-largest party in the Riksdag, have proposed a motion for the Swedish government to consider creating a national Bitcoin reserve. The proposal, submitted by Dennis Dioukarev and David Perez, calls for an investigation into the construction of a strategic Bitcoin reserve and the appropriate authority to manage it. The lawmakers suggest that Bitcoin could supplement gold and foreign exchange reserves, offering a form of "digital gold" that could diversify state holdings and provide protection against inflation. They believe that by establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, Sweden could position itself for a potentially disruptive shift in the global financial infrastructure.
The proposal comes as other nations, including the U.S., Bhutan, and El Salvador, have already explored or established strategic Bitcoin reserves. The U.S. in particular has influenced other countries to reconsider their approach to cryptocurrencies. Countries like the UK, China, and Finland have unofficial reserves of confiscated digital assets, while others like Poland and Latvia have considered establishing strategic Bitcoin reserves. Recently, Kazakhstan launched a state-backed crypto reserve containing BNB, the native token of the BNB Chain created by Binance. Meanwhile, U.S. states such as Texas, Arizona, and New Hampshire have passed laws to create their own reserves. Despite the growing interest, critics warn that Bitcoin remains volatile, vulnerable to fraud, and relatively illiquid compared to gold.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a significant increase in net inflows over the past four weeks, with a total of $3.96 billion added. This marks nine positive weeks out of the last twelve, with the 12-week rolling sum standing at $6.08 billion. The total net inflows for the year to date amount to $22.78 billion, with $58.44 billion since inception. The average weekly value traded over the past four weeks is $16.17 billion, compared to a 12-week average of $17.90 billion.
The Federal Reserve's rate cut in September and the subsequent easing in market pricing in Q4 have lowered the hurdle for rate-sensitive allocators using ETFs to add exposure. The U.S. government shutdown has pushed gold to record highs and the dollar lower, a mix that has historically coincided with stronger crypto ETP prints. CoinShares recorded consecutive weekly inflows through late September, with Bitcoin capturing the majority of tickets. A total of $1.03 billion went into digital asset funds in the week to Sept. 29, including $790 million into Bitcoin vehicles.
If the recent four-week run rate continues, the quarter-to-date net intake could reach near $13 billion by year-end. However, Kaiko Research finds that ETF net flows only explain a modest share of daily BTC returns, with an R² near 0.32, indicating that derivatives and macro factors still drive a large portion of variance. The research also shows more trading clustered around U.S. creation and redemption windows, suggesting that liquidity during those hours carries more weight in discovery than before the ETF launch.
Bitcoin's price hovered near $118,500 on Thursday, spurred by a U.S. government shutdown that increased the odds of a rate cut, a softening dollar, and a visible short squeeze across derivatives platforms. Gold also reached new record highs of around $3,895 per ounce, a situation that historically aligns with stronger Bitcoin performance when real yields decrease. According to Treasury market data, 10-year TIPS yields were around 1.77 to 1.78 percent, reinforcing the macro impulse that coincided with Bitcoin's rise. The recent jump in Bitcoin's price followed a reset in positioning that cleared leverage into late September, making the market sensitive to macro headlines and flow shocks.
Last week saw $1.7 billion in crypto liquidations, a cleanout that typically reduces one-way convexity until a new catalyst emerges. Liquidation heatmaps into the $118,000 to $120,000 zone showed dense short pockets ahead of the break, and once cleared, these clusters often act like step-ladders for continuation if spot demand persists. Bitcoin is now just 4.8% away from its all-time high, and if the squeeze continues, we could see price discovery later in 'Uptober.' U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a renewed burst of activity, with a single-day net inflow of $645 million, part of a multi-day run that crossed $1.6 billion. When daily net inflows sustain beyond roughly $500 million for two sessions, the price has tended to add another 3 to 7 percent over the subsequent 72 hours based on recent episodes.
The U.S. government shutdown that began on October 1 complicated the data path into the October 29 Federal Reserve meeting, leading traders to increase the probability of a 25 basis point cut as a hedge against prolonged uncertainty. In this setting, the dollar's slide and a decrease in real yields lined up with a bid across gold and Bitcoin. According to Deribit open-interest data, approximately $8 billion of Bitcoin options are set to expire on October 31, with concentration building around round strikes at $120,000 and $125,000. Dealer hedging can pin price in those neighborhoods when flows net to neutral.
The traditional Wall Street trading model is undergoing a transformation as tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs are enabling 24/7 on-chain trading. This shift is being facilitated by platforms like Ondo Global Markets, which are integrating these tokenized assets into wallets like Bitget. The expectation is that in a few years, wallets will become the primary portal for non-U.S. investors to access U.S. equities, bypassing brokers entirely.
Tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) such as securities, funds, and bonds has been a topic of discussion for over a decade. Early attempts included synthetic models and contracts for difference (CFDs), but the most significant progress has been seen in fully backed tokenized securities. These represent claims on real shares held with a regulated custodian under bankruptcy-remote structures. Examples of this progress include Galaxy Digital, which became the first U.S. listed company to tokenize its own common stock in August 2025, and Nasdaq, which has filed a proposal with the SEC to enable trading of tokenized securities on its main market by 2026.
The rise of stablecoins has demonstrated how quickly traditional assets can migrate on-chain. This has set a precedent for equities, with tokenized equities potentially extending Wall Street's reach globally. The trend is already evident in RWA markets, with tokenized Treasuries and cash equivalents topping $7.4 billion and overall RWA supply on-chain surpassing $25 billion in 2025. Crypto wallets are evolving into financial gateways, combining payments, savings, and investments, and offering low-barrier access to capital markets. However, challenges remain, including liquidity and regulatory issues, as well as structural frictions such as custodial centralization and valuation opacity.
World Liberty Financial (WLFI), an altcoin launched in 2025 and backed by ties to Donald Trump’s family, has been making waves in the crypto market. The token, which raised significant capital during its presale, has governance as its sole utility, offering a unique blend of political attention, ambitious product promises, and experimental tokenomics. WLFI positions itself as a decentralized finance platform that aims to merge traditional finance and blockchain infrastructure, with its only direct utility being governance. Token holders can propose and vote on protocol decisions, but holding WLFI does not confer investment rights, revenue claims, or equity.
The Trump family and its associates are believed to hold as much as 60% of the WLFI supply, making their influence on governance substantial. This connection has been a central part of WLFI’s identity since its inception, attracting both attention and skepticism. The token's presale reportedly raised more than half a billion dollars, making it one of the largest fundraising events of the year. At launch, only 20% of early investor holdings were unlocked, with the rest subject to vesting schedules and governance decisions. Future unlocks remain a key factor for traders and investors, as staged releases can introduce significant supply pressure.
WLFI also carries several risks that market participants should weigh carefully. The majority of its supply remains locked, and future unlock events could add significant selling pressure. Governance outcomes remain uncertain, as high-profile proposals like buybacks or burns depend not only on approval but also on actual execution. The Trump family branding brings visibility yet also heightens political and regulatory scrutiny, which could affect sentiment. Finally, ecosystem products such as the USD1 stablecoin are still in their infancy, with adoption limited and supply concentrated in a handful of wallets, leaving them far from functioning as robust, widely used tools.
Tether, the issuer of USDT, has significantly increased its Bitcoin holdings, purchasing 8,889 BTC for $1 billion. This move has drawn the attention of the crypto community, with Tether's CEO, Paolo Ardoino, confirming the purchase. The company now holds 86,335 BTC, valued at $10.23 billion. Data from Arkham shows that the coins were transferred from Bitfinex’s hot wallet to Tether's Bitcoin reserves wallet. Tether is now one of the largest Bitcoin holders, controlling 0.4% of the flagship crypto’s supply.
In addition to its direct holdings, Tether has further exposure to Bitcoin through its stake in Twenty One Capital (XXI), the third largest BTC treasury company. XXI holds 43,514 BTC on its balance sheet, some of which it received from Tether as part of the USDT issuer’s investment. Tether has stated its intention to continue buying as much Bitcoin as possible, with Ardoino last month stating that they will continue to invest part of their profits in safe assets like BTC, gold, and land. Tether's latest Bitcoin purchase coincided with the bottoming out of the BTC price, with the company buying the coins when the flagship crypto was trading at around $110,000. Since then, BTC has rallied, beginning this month with a gain of around 6%.
Tether's ability to continue purchasing Bitcoin is supported by its strong revenue generation. Data from DeFiLlama shows that the stablecoin issuer has earned $22.27 million in revenue in the last 24 hours and $155.27 million in the last seven days. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $118,400, up over 3% in the last 24 hours. Bitcoin is expected to record significant gains this month based on historical data, with October being its second-best performing month, recording average gains of 20% over the years.
Crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA) has suggested that Bitcoin is poised for a significant price surge, based on historical patterns and key indicators. In a recent video analysis, Kevin noted that Bitcoin's current volatility is at an all-time low, a condition that has historically preceded significant price increases. He based his prediction on two indicators: the monthly Bollinger Bands Width (BBW) and the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI). The BBW, which is currently at its lowest point in Bitcoin's history, tracks the distance between the Bollinger Bands and indicates potential for sharp price movements when compressed. The RSI, which Kevin describes as currently consolidating in a bull-flag structure, has historically peaked prior to significant market moves.
Kevin further supports his prediction by pointing to similar conditions in late 2013 and 2017, when the monthly RSI peaked and the BBW expanded, leading to cycle tops after periods of low volatility. He suggests that the current cycle could follow a similar pattern, provided Bitcoin maintains its higher-timeframe support. He identifies the weekly "bull market support band" and nearby horizontal levels as key to Bitcoin's potential to rise in the fourth quarter. Kevin also considers the macroeconomic landscape and on-chain data as supporting evidence, suggesting that a supportive policy environment, steady GDP growth, and a potential end to the Fed's quantitative tightening could pave the way for Bitcoin to rise in Q4.
In terms of valuation and positioning, Kevin uses a logarithmic regression model of total crypto market capitalization and a "Bitcoin risk metric". He argues that the total market cap has not yet exceeded his model's fair-value trendline this cycle, and that previous significant price increases only began after crossing above fair value. He also notes that net flows of Bitcoin to exchanges are decreasing, which he interprets as accumulation behavior rather than cycle top behavior. Despite uncertainties around near-term US economic data and government operations, Kevin maintains that the current conditions suggest a significant price surge for Bitcoin is imminent, concluding: "There is major volatility coming. If anything, it's starting now."
Franklin Templeton's spot Solana Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) has been listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) under the ticker SOEZ. This development is a significant step towards the fund's availability in the US markets, indicating its preparedness for institutional distribution. It also underscores Solana's expanding role in the traditional finance sector. The DTCC has been collaborating with global financial authorities to enhance settlement infrastructure, including faster T+1 settlement cycles that facilitate innovative products such as blockchain-related ETFs.
In addition to Franklin Templeton's spot Solana ETF, other Solana ETFs have also been listed on the DTCC. These include the CoinShares Solana Staking ETF, the 21Shares Solana ETF, and the Fidelity Solana Fund. The listing of these funds on the DTCC further integrates Solana into the traditional finance infrastructure, supporting the tokenization of real-world assets and ETFs.
FG Nexus is partnering with Securitize to tokenize its shares on the Ethereum blockchain, a move that makes it one of the first Nasdaq-listed companies to offer tokenization options for common stock on Ethereum. Shareholders will have the option to convert their common stock into tokenized shares. The company, which recently adopted an Ethereum treasury strategy, will also be the first to tokenize a dividend-paying, exchange-listed perpetual preferred share. The tokenization process will be facilitated by Securitize's regulated infrastructure, including its SEC-registered broker-dealer, Alternative Trading System (ATS), and transfer agent services. This will ensure that the tokenized shares represent legal ownership and can be traded onchain, subject to traditional share transfer restrictions.
FG Nexus' agreement with Securitize is seen as a demonstration of the company's commitment to financial innovation and the benefits it can bring to its investor community. Carlos Domingo, Co-Founder & CEO of Securitize, highlighted that this project is expected to allow US investors to hold real stock, not a synthetic wrapper, with instant settlement, automated compliance, and the ability to trade onchain through their regulated ATS. Maja Vujinovic, CEO of Digital Assets at FG Nexus, emphasized that tokenization is reshaping financial markets by improving efficiency and investor reach. FG Nexus recently raised around $200 million in a private placement to fund its Ethereum acquisitions and currently holds around 47,331 ETH worth approximately $208 million.
Citigroup, the global banking giant, has projected a bullish 12-month price forecast for Bitcoin at $181,000. This prediction underscores the bank's optimistic perspective on the pioneering cryptocurrency. The bank's analysts have highlighted that Bitcoin's price dynamics are primarily driven by buyer interest. They base their case on the assumption of robust year-end inflows of $7.5 billion into the asset.
Despite the headwinds from a stronger dollar and weaker gold, which led to a downward revision of the year-end target for Bitcoin from $135,000 to $133,000, Citigroup maintains that the "digital gold" narrative remains intact. The bank stresses that sustained investor demand will be crucial for supporting Bitcoin prices through the end of the year and into 2026.
